Is a Coup in Taiwan inevitable?
Is there any possibility of a coup attempt in Taiwan?
Imagine what the top brass of the Taiwanese Military would think: if Taiwan is returned back to mainland China.
(a) China’s white paper of 2022 had said if Taiwan is reunited they would send troops to Taiwan to take control of the island. This is assuming China has to take Taiwan by force and Taiwan would loose much autonomy.
(b) but if Taiwan is reunited with China by peaceful mean, Taiwan would be granted much autonomy, as China had said in two previous white papers, in 1993 and 2000, that they “will not send troops or administrative personnel to be based in Taiwan” after achieving reunification on peaceful terms.
Taiwan’s military equipments are antiquated and their top brass know this. Former President Ma Ying-jeou had said the US will not come to Taiwan’s aid in the case of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
China has J-20s and carrier-borne FC-31 stealth fighters but Taiwan hasn’t have any of the US F-35. All Taiwan has are a couple of non-stealth F-16s of the Vietnam War era and not even a single F-18. China’s navy has already two aircraft carriers and another on the way; plus another 530 warships, more than even the US’s 490. Another sixty or so submarines cruise below the surface.
Despite much rhetorics about coming to Taiwan’s help should China invade Taiwan, none of the US’s Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group with their combined 27,000 sailors and marines would risk coming close to any of Taiwan’s shorelines. For there awaits China’s hypersonic DF17, DF21, DF26 and others all keeping watch deep in the heartland of Qinghai, Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan and Gansu; and other anti-ship missiles, designated as YJ-12B, allow China to strike surface vessels within 295 nautical miles from their strategic Spratly and Paracel Islands in the hotly contested South China Sea.
“The children of Ephraim, being armed and carrying bows, turned back in the day of battle” Psalm 78:9
In a speech on cross-strait relations and Taiwanese national security delivered in August 10, 2020, Ma stated that China’s strategy of striking Taiwan is to “let the first battle be the last,” indicating that the emerging behemoth aims to launch a quick war so that Taiwan does not have time to wait for American military support.
If Taiwan lost out and they will, their top military personel and bull-headed politicians would spend the rest of their lives in prison, unless they manage to flee abroad like President Thiệu of South Vietnam in April 30, 1975 with 15 tons of gold to Taiwan; otherwise hide underground like Saddam of Iraq had done when the American forces overrun over their country in March 29, 2003 before an onslaught.
Certainly the Taiwanese military also know that if they negotiate a settlement they could be assured Taiwan’s military would enjoy great autonomy after becoming a special administrative region of China. The white paper of 2022 says “anything can be negotiated.” That’s why the transition and takeover of the Afghanistan government by the Taliban from the frormer regime were so stealthful, quick and smooth; simply because the fakes know they are fakes and will evenutally be exposed.
“The president should prevent war from happening,” Ma said, referring to Taiwan’s fake President Tsai Ing-wen’s frequent comments to foreign media that if Taiwan is attacked by China, Beijing will “pay a heavy price.” She also said that after the nation endures the first wave of attacks, she hopes countries around the world will come to assist it.
But Ma Ying-jeou said he was worried because the Taiwan’s military is aware of China’s strategy. Once war has begun, it will be over in a very short time, he predicted, giving Taiwan no chance to wait for the US military to arrive. Hence Ma predicted Taiwan’s “first battle” with China will also be Taiwan’s “last.”
And since Nancy Pelocy’s trip to Taiwan, their top military brass are having high blood pressure, more so when they could hopefully see missiles flying over their island. Amid such tensions, Taiwan’s defence research expert, Ou Yang Li-hsing, 57, who was in charge of missile production, died in a hotel room “of a heart attack.”
Soon after Pelosi’s departure, another US congressional delegation arrived in Taiwan, a five-member delegation, led by Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts, to meet President Tsai and attend a banquet hosted by the foreign minister, Joseph Wu, during another provocative visit.
China relaunched more military drills and other simulating blockade around Taiwan, with 30 warplanes and five vessels near the Taiwan Straight. And this goes in a circle as it wouldn’t be long before another batch of provocateurs would land in Taiwan to stir the pot, this time led by either a group of Canadian lawmakers or Lithuanian demagogues and her European compatriots.
Given such a scenario, the pressures and incentives for the top military brass of Taiwan to carry out a coup is extremely irresistable and seducive.
“And I will cast you out of My sight, as I have cast out all your brethren, even the whole seed of Ephraim” Jeremiah 7:15
“The crown of pride, the drunkards of Ephraim, shall be trodden under feet” Isaiah 28:3
Joel Huan
The Mystery of Ephraim 