Five Scenarios If Pelosi . . .

For every Action, there is an equal or opposite Reaction!

Here Are The 5 Chinese Military Response Scenarios If Pelosi Visits Taiwan.

Zerohedge by Tyler Durden / August 2, 2022

A senior official in Beijing said the atmosphere of last week’s Biden-Xi telephone conversation was the worst among the five talks between the leaders and President Xi was said to have showed the toughest attitude he has ever shown to any world leader, while the most important topic in the conversation was China-US relations especially the ‘Taiwan Question’. 

If indeed it’s accurate that Xi got “tough” in the call with Biden, expressing Beijing’s ‘red lines’ directly to the US president, this is certainly recipe for something big in terms of a major Chinese response (of course… in what form – diplomatic or military – nobody knows) should Pelosi show up in Taipei this week.

“Don’t cross our red lines or we’ll take action.”

Amid concerns that if she lands with fighter jet escort guiding her military transport plane – which has been widely reported to be set for Tuesday night – this could trigger nothing short of a shooting war with China.

And now, a number of military analysis publications are examining the various possible ‘worst case scenarios’. One independent analyst and China-Taiwan watcher has laid out a full range of hypothetical, albeit realistic scenarios involving different potential levels of Chinese aggression against the self-ruled island of Taiwan. 

Below is an excerpt from an insightful post titled Red Clouds of War Looming Over Taiwan by a Westerner who is a Taiwan-based researcher…

Scenario 1: The minimalist approach. The PLA occupies Jinmen or Matsu islands, as well as Taiwan’s islands in the South China Sea, and maybe even the Penghu Islands. They also declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait a “no go” zone to foreign military shipping. This would probably be fairly easy for the PLA, and Taiwan would probably not want to overcommit to naval action against the huge PLA Navy (PLAN) if it didn’t directly approach the main island.

Scenario 2: Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan intended to interfere with the economy, combined with stepped-up harassment, such as direct flyovers of Taiwan’s territory by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) jets, or incursions into Taiwan’s maritime space by China’s naval militia, protected by PLAN warships. This might also be accompanied by cyberattacks designed to shut down the internet and other infrastructure for days at a time. Taiwan would have no choice to assert a stiff defensive posture, resulting in real engagements between Taiwanese and Chinese forces, posing a serious risk of escalation.

Scenario 3: A serious attack but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare only, no boots on the ground. A full aerial and naval blockade, a protracted set of naval and aerial battles designed to degrade Taiwan’s military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Aggressive cyberattacks turning off the internet and shutting down critical infrastructure for days or weeks. Once air and naval superiority were established, China could pick off targets at will, ratcheting up the threat until the government breaks.

Scenario 4: The Full Monty – a proper invasion. Total air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattacks to paralyze virtually all military, governmental, and civilian communication and shut down critical infrastructure. Aggressive naval and aerial engagements to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlespace superiority, followed by sustained aerial assaults by fighters and bombers on military targets.

A decapitation strike at Taipei by special forces units to try to seize key leadership personnel. Well-coordinated insider treason and sabotage actions by gangsters, planted CCP agents, and other groups sympathetic to China – the so-called “5th column”. An amphibious assault with close air support from fighters, helicopters, and battle drones at one or more locations in Taiwan, and very possibly a move to seize a major port, such as Keelung, Taipei Port, Taichung, or Kaohsiung.

Then hundreds of thousands of troops would start rolling in until the island was occupied. That would be the plan, anyway. PLA success in such an endeavor is very unclear. But they could do a hell of a lot of damage trying. And yes, they might actually succeed, at least partially, such as in seizing and holding the region around Taipei.

Scenario 5: Worst Case (short of nuclear) scenario. Full air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattack, aggressive naval and aerial attacks to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlefield superiority, followed by aerial assaults by fighters and bomber on military targets and area bombing of civilian targets. There are massive casualties, and Taiwan is crushed by brute force, surrenders, and then the occupiers enter the country and take it over.

My guess is, Scenario 1: China would prefer not to escalate, yet China has to do something as not to appear weak before all the international eyes and before their domestic audience, hence taking a few islands near the coastline off the Mainland and probably one of two further out would be a great runoff! That is, they would have a great achievement after the heat is off, and so is Nancy Pelosi, who now could claim victory to fulfill her capstone career before retirement. Most importantly, it will allow both sides to claim victory in the aftermath! For every Action, there is an equal or opposite Reaction!

LATEST August 2, 2022

Flightradar24 showed the plane entering Taiwan’s air identification zone from the southwestern side at around 10pm. The website indicates the flight is estimated to arrive in Taipei at 10.44pm.

The Next Day

~ by Joel Huan on August 2, 2022.

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