China to buy Nvidia’s H200 Chips?
Trump has approved selling Nvidia’s H200 chips to China, but has China shown any interest in buying this second-rated chips?
ChatGPT responds
That’s a good, timely question. The short answer is: it’s unclear — there is interest, but China has not yet committed publicly to large-scale purchases of Nvidia H200 chips, and Chinese government policy may limit adoption. The situation is still fluid. Here’s what we know as of now. Reuters+2South China Morning Post+2
What shows China could buy / wants H200s
- According to recent reporting, some Chinese AI developers and data-center operators have reacted positively to the US decision to allow H200 exports — because the H200 still outperforms many domestic chips, especially in high-performance AI training workloads. South China Morning Post+1
- Analysts quoted in media say the H200’s architecture (derived from Hopper line) remains attractive because many Chinese AI frameworks and models are already optimized around Nvidia chips. South China Morning Post
- The sale approval covers “approved customers” — meaning some companies in China could legally place orders under the new export-licensing rules. euronews+1
So from the demand and technical-needs side, there’s reason to expect interest.
What works against broad Chinese adoption
- Regulatory/resistance from Beijing: Several reports note that Chinese authorities, while not outright banning H200 imports under the new policy, are likely to restrict or limit access — to protect domestic chipmakers and maintain technological self-reliance. Reuters+2The Straits Times+2
- Domestic-first policy: Even before the US re-opened exports, China had already been pushing for domestic AI-chip development. Some big Chinese tech firms had begun shifting away from relying on Nvidia chips. Tom’s Hardware+1
- Uncertainty about licensing and revenue-sharing fees: The US policy imposes a 25% fee (or share) on exports to China, which likely raises costs. That may make H200s less attractive compared with domestic alternatives — if performance gains don’t outweigh cost and regulatory risk. Yahoo Finance+1
- Strategic risk and supply-chain caution: Given geopolitics — export-import restrictions, future sanctions, potential backlash — many Chinese firms may hesitate to rely on imported GPUs for core AI infrastructure, especially for sensitive applications. The Straits Times+1
Also, according to Nvidia’s own CEO (quoted recently), he is “unsure” whether Chinese companies will decide to buy H200s even if they can. Tom’s Hardware
Current Outlook (as of December 2025)
- We’re likely to see some limited purchases — mostly by private Chinese tech firms that want high-performance GPUs quickly and are willing to pay a premium/accept regulatory risk.
- Large-scale adoption across the Chinese state sector or major data centers seems less likely right away, due to government preference for domestic chips and policy uncertainty.
- Over the next 6–12 months we’ll see— depending on how many licenses China grants, how many firms actually place orders, and whether the chips deliver enough value compared with domestic alternatives.
Joel
A Prophecy of Esau and Jacob 