A Prophecy of Esau and Jacob

China claims its radars closing in on US stealth fighters

AsiaTimes • November 4, 2024 ~ SCMP

China’s latest simulations reveal a US stealth jet vulnerability as its radars can detect F-22s and F-35s at striking distances, a potential seismic technology development as tensions mount around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

This month, South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Chinese military researchers from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) National Defense University’s College of Joint Operations and the State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Game in Beijing have recently conducted computer simulations to assess the effectiveness of stealth fighter jets against China’s air defense systems.

SCMP says that the simulations, presented at the 36th China Simulation Conference in October, revealed that stealth fighters like the F-22 and F-35 could be detected from 180 kilometers away by China’s land-based radars, compromising their ability to conduct precision ground attacks.

The simulation was of a US attack on Shanghai from Japan, the SCMP report said. The report notes that the F-35’s “beast mode” allows for longer-range missile attacks but sacrifices stealth, making it detectable from 450 kilometers away.

The study, led by project engineer Cao Wei, used an algorithm to convert radar data into detection ranges and warning times, suggesting the results might be conservative due to the limited number of radars used. It notes that the findings come amid increased US deployment of F-22s in Japan, heightening Chinese interest in countering stealth threats.

China has invested significantly in F-22 and F-35 detection capabilities. For instance, SCMP reported last month that Chinese scientists have developed a cost-effective radar to detect and track stealth aircraft like the F-22 using signals from the BeiDou navigation satellite system.

This innovative radar, detailed in a recent peer-reviewed paper in the Journal of the National University of Defense Technology, employs a single receiving antenna and a unique algorithm to identify stealth targets without emitting detectable signals.

The radar’s design, led by Wen Yuanyuan from the National Key Laboratory of Space Microwave Communication, simplifies deployment and reduces costs, making anti-stealth technology more accessible globally. It says the radars can switch to other satellite signals like GPS, Galileo or GLONASS if BeiDou is jammed to ensure continuous operation.

At the tactical level, stealth aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35 are expected to play a critical role in any US and allied response to a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

In a December 2022 Warrior Maven article, Kris Osborn says that the US plans to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with an array of F-22 and F-35 fighters, leveraging their air superiority and precision strike capabilities. Osborn notes that these jets, positioned for rapid response, would neutralize Chinese forces by securing airspace control over the Taiwan Strait.

He notes that this air dominance, combined with forward-deployed US Navy assets and allied forces, would aim to destroy approaching Chinese amphibious forces. He adds that the F-35s, operating from US Marine Corps (USMC) America-class assault ships, would offer versatility with both vertical-takeoff capabilities and forward-deployed presence.

Osborne assesses that despite China’s recent advancements, including Type 075 amphibious ships and quasi-stealth J-20 and J-31 fighters, it lacks sufficient fifth-generation aircraft numbers to match US and allied firepower.

Air & Space Forces Magazine reported in October 2023 that while China has built around 180-220 J-20 stealth fighters, surpassing the 187 F-22s the US maintains, Asia Times reported last month that the US currently has 680 operational F-35s, with plans to acquire 1,800 more.

However, US F-35 production struggles with spiraling costs in upgrading increasingly difficult-to-maintain F-22s and ramping up F-35 production.

At the operational level, US stealth aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35 would be instrumental in defeating China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy.

In a 2021 Air & Space Forces Power journal article, Tom Lawrence mentions that China has established a robust A2/AD environment, mainly through advanced air defense systems, stealth-capable destroyers and missile capabilities.

Lawrence points out that the US leverages stealth aircraft, notably the F-22 and F-35, for their low observability, allowing them to penetrate heavily defended zones and execute precision strikes.

He says emphasis is placed on distributed command and control (C2), empowering decentralized units to operate autonomously when enemy cyber or anti-satellite attacks disrupt traditional C2 systems.

Lawrence notes that this approach aligns with new operational doctrines, such as Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2), which aims to integrate US and allied land, sea, air and space assets for multi-domain responses.

He emphasizes that stealth fighters play a critical role in achieving tactical surprise and establishing air superiority, while the integration of autonomous unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAV) with manned fighters indicates a shift toward collaborative, network-enabled warfare.

At the strategic level, F-22s and F-35s are vital for the US’s conventional deterrence posture in the Pacific. In June 2022, Stars and Stripes mentioned that former head of US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) Admiral John Aquilino emphasized the need for a permanent presence of these advanced aircraft west of the International Date Line.

This deployment is seen as crucial for countering China’s extensive military buildup, including advancements in naval, missile, cyber and space capabilities.

Stars and Stripes says that the US has already stationed F-35Bs at USMC Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, and deployed F-35Cs on aircraft carriers, but the US Air Force’s F-22s and F-35s have only been deployed temporarily.

According to the report, Aquilino advocates for a permanent deployment to enhance deterrence and maintain regional stability.

However, while China may not be able to match US airpower, it can attempt to destroy US aircraft on the ground in a pre-emptive strike for a Taiwan invasion.

China’s pervasive intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and all-domain long-range offensive capabilities, such as the DF-26 “Guam Killer” missile, put dispersed US facilities, air assets and naval forces at risk.

In a May 2024 letter to the US Navy and US Air Force, several US Congress representatives noted the vulnerability of US bases and aircraft in the Pacific to Chinese attacks, underscoring what they see as a critical defense gap.

The letter says China’s extensive strike capabilities threaten all US installations in the Indo-Pacific, including critical facilities in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. It notes that US air and missile defenses may be overwhelmed, exposing critical assets.

The letter also criticizes the US Department of Defense’s (DOD) delay in implementing “passive defenses,” such as hardened shelters and force dispersal. It notes that China has constructed over 400 fortified shelters while the US added only 22 in the past decade.

It points out this disparity leaves US aircraft and bases vulnerable, with war games showing 90% of US aircraft losses occurring on the ground.

“The stranger that is within thee shall get up above thee very high, and thou shalt come down very low.

“He shall lend to thee, and thou shalt not lend to him. He shall be the head, and thou shalt be the tail” Deuteronomy 28:43-44

~ by Joel on November 17, 2024.

Posted in China